Gold's 50%+ rally in 2025 (and another 15% YTD in 2026) was driven almost entirely by central banks and institutions. Central banks globally added 1,000+ tons. Meanwhile, if you asked 100 random people on the street if gold had a historic year, maybe 5 would know. This is stealth accumulation at scale, and it's happening because sovereigns are losing faith in the dollar-Treasury system.

The really bullish part? Bitcoin is tracking gold's path with a 12-18 month lag. Gold broke its all-time high in March 2024 and then went parabolic through 2025 while central banks quietly accumulated. Bitcoin broke $100K in late 2024 and has been consolidating around $90k ever since. Same playbook, different asset. Gold moves first because of its long standing reputation. Bitcoin comes next because it's "gold with wings."

We're in the phase where structural buyers matter more than retail hype. Gold didn't rally 50% because of investors and wealth managers waking up. It rallied because central banks made a strategic decision to diversify away from Treasuries. Bitcoin lags as it doesn't have the sovereign bid, but private sector institutions, particularly in the US, are leading the next leg up.

The volatility gap between gold and Bitcoin is closing. Even with a 50% move, gold's structural volatility profile remains low compared to Bitcoin. Meanwhile, Bitcoin's volatility has been trending down for years and is now in the 40-50% range (down from 80-100% in previous cycles). As Bitcoin's volatility continues compressing, the risk-adjusted case for institutional allocation gets stronger. We're watching Bitcoin "grow up" in real time.

We spent time wrestling with whether gold's absolutely massive outperformance means Bitcoin is losing or just warming up.

The concern:
If institutions are piling into gold (50% in 2025!) but staying cautious on Bitcoin, maybe we're wrong about the timing. Maybe Bitcoin is still "too risky" for serious allocators, and gold's historic run is proof that old money will always default to the legacy safe haven. If that's true, Bitcoin's institutional moment might be years away, not months.

The counter:
Gold rallying 65%+ over 15 months is the strongest possible proof that the hard asset thesis is correct. Central banks are publicly signaling they don't trust the Treasury system. Gold is moving first because it's familiar and approved. But Bitcoin is objectively superior: more portable, more divisible, more neutral, no storage costs, no counterparty risk. Once the infrastructure is built (custody, ETFs, regulatory clarity), capital will flow toward the better asset. We're not behind. We're sequencing.

Where we landed:
Gold's rally is confirming the macro thesis, not contradicting it. The fact that Bitcoin hasn't "done what it's supposed to do yet" isn't a bug, it's adoption sequencing. Institutions move slowly. They start with what they know (gold), then migrate to what's better (Bitcoin). If you're frustrated by the time lag, you're impatient, not wrong.

If you believe central banks will keep diversifying away from Treasuries, and you believe hard assets are remonetizing, then Bitcoin isn't a "maybe someday" allocation. It's a "how much and when" decision.

The macro setup is confirming the thesis. Gold moved first because it's familiar. Bitcoin is next because it's better. The question isn't whether to own it, it's whether you're positioned before the next leg up, not scrambling to catch up after.

If you're still waiting for "$100K" or "more clarity," you're thinking like a trader, not a treasury manager. And if you're already holding BTC but haven't pressure-tested your custody setup, you're solving for the wrong risk.

This week's action: Stop treating gold and Bitcoin as separate stories.

They're the same story at different stages.

Ask yourself:

If yes, then Bitcoin isn't a speculation. It's a long-term strategic position. And if it's a long-term strategic position, you need to treat it like one.

That means getting custody, security, and inheritance planning right, not someday, but now, before the next leg up forces you to make rushed decisions at higher prices.

We help individuals, businesses, and institutions who own Bitcoin (or want to) secure it properly: institutional-grade custody, inheritance planning, financial services, and access to a team that knows what they're doing.

If you're holding serious BTC and haven't pressure-tested your setup, or if you're building a position and want to do it right from the start, let's talk.

Book a 15-minute call here

— Jackson

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