401(k) Access and Market Structure

• $10T unlocked: Trump signs an executive order enabling 401(k) participants to allocate to Bitcoin and other alternative investments.

• Access gap closing: ETFs opened brokerage access in 2024, but 401(k) and advisory account investors at many firms were still sidelined, but that is changing.

• Passive bid potential: Regular 401(k) contributions could become a persistent source of Bitcoin demand, helping establish a price floor.

• Small flows, big impact: Even a low single-digit percentage of total retirement assets flowing into Bitcoin would be significant.

• Cycle debate: Will this accelerate a “supercycle” or do four-year boom–bust patterns persist until sovereign bids structurally change the market?

The Structural Rot in the Fiat Economy

• Home prices vs. wages: In 1950, a median home cost ~1.5 years of wages; today it’s 7–8 years, pricing out generations of home ownership.

• Vanishing stability: Only ~12% of 30-year-olds are both married and homeowners today, down from over 50% in 1950.

• Regulation drag: The cost of U.S. regulations alone would rank as the world’s 4th-largest GDP, creating persistent economic friction.

• Fiscal decay: Rising debt and unchecked government spending remain politically untouchable, ensuring the trend worsens.

• Bitcoin relevance: These structural failures strengthen the case for a parallel, voluntary monetary system immune to fiat debasement.

Sovereign and Institutional Bitcoin Accumulation

• Potential Brazil move: Lawmakers discuss a strategic Bitcoin reserve bill, signaling growing sovereign interest.

• Pensions buying BTC: Michigan’s state pension fund tripled its Bitcoin ETF holdings in Q2 2025, starting with small allocations before scaling.

• Treasury risk abroad: Non-U.S. governments face both investment and geopolitical counterparty risk when holding U.S. treasuries.

• First-mover advantage: Sovereigns that accumulate Bitcoin early gain a strategic edge before it becomes mainstream reserve policy.

• Institutional pressure: Underfunded pensions and return-starved institutions may be forced toward Bitcoin to meet performance targets.

Stablecoins and the Changing Market Narrative

• Tether dominance: Market consensus sees stablecoin growth boosting Ethereum or Solana, but Tether is positioned to capture most of the value.

• Stablechain launch: Tether plans its own chain with USDT as the native token, removing the need for a separate free-floating asset.

• More honest model: This design acknowledges most stablecoin usage does not require a decentralized blockchain.

• Regulatory tailwind: The Genius Act’s three-year compliance window could accelerate U.S.-specific stablecoin issuance on Tether’s own chain.

• Implication for crypto: Stablecoin proliferation may not lift non-Bitcoin crypto assets as much as their proponents expect.

Gold Revaluation and the Cost of Capital

• Fed quietly floats revaluation: A recent FEDS Note discusses marking U.S. gold reserves to market, a potential “budget-neutral” way to strengthen the balance sheet.

• From $42 to $3,300/oz: Revaluing 261.5M troy ounces of U.S. gold from the statutory $42.22 price to current market levels would unlock hundreds of billions in paper gains.

• Real inflation signal: Luke Gromen notes the USD has fallen from 1/42 oz to 1/3,300 oz of gold in 54 years, an 8.4% CAGR, far above reported CPI.

• Sound money mix: A gold revaluation could be paired with Bitcoin accumulation as sovereigns seek to manage debt and bolster reserves.

• Custody connection: Bitcoin’s emergence as a true hurdle rate depends on secure, resilient custody to protect long-term wealth planning.

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