Gold's rally isn't coming from retail or wealth managers waking up. It's central banks and momentum capital. This is stealth accumulation at scale. When Mel asked how many people on the street know gold had a historic year, the answer is almost nobody. The hot money is chasing the move, but the underlying bid is sovereigns diversifying out of Treasuries. Despite a slower pace than 2022-2024, 2025 still saw significant inflows from central banks.

Bitcoin is in its "puberty stage." Mel's framework: childhood was steady growth every year. Puberty means some years you don't grow much, then you have a growth spurt. Eventually you reach adulthood, which is more stable. Bitcoin is going through that awkward phase right now. Ownership is turning over. OGs are selling. Institutions are buying. The treasury companies are accumulating. It's a process, and it takes time.

The CLARITY Act getting derailed was a bigger deal than people realize. It was one of three pillars Mel followed (alongside the GENIUS Act and sovereign wealth fund) that fueled the 2025 rally. The CLARITY Act has stalled which has pulled oxygen out of the market. Combined with gold sucking up momentum capital, it actually makes sense why Bitcoin is trading where it is. And given all that, $83k is hanging in there remarkably well.

The Fed will have to expand its balance sheet. The only question is when and how. Whether it's proactive policy or a market meltdown that forces their hand, we end up in the same place: more QE, lower rates, and non-USD assets benefiting. The next Fed chair does not have much choice. Interest expense is too high. Foreign holders don't want more Treasuries. The path forward is balance sheet expansion, and that's bullish for hard assets.

We wrestled with whether Bitcoin is losing the hard asset rotation or just waiting its turn.

The concern:
Gold is up 90%+ since the start of 2025 and Bitcoin is slightly negative in that same period. If institutional capital is choosing gold over Bitcoin, maybe the timing is wrong. Maybe Bitcoin is still too volatile, too risky, too unfamiliar for serious allocators. Maybe we're not in the early innings of institutional adoption. Maybe we're in a multi-year dry spell like other asset classes have experienced.

The counter:
Gold moving first is exactly what you'd expect. Central banks aren't going to buy Bitcoin before they buy gold. But the fundamental properties that make Bitcoin superior (more portable, more divisible, no storage costs, truly trustless) don't disappear because price is sideways. Once the infrastructure matures and the regulatory picture clears, capital flows toward the better asset. We're watching Bitcoin mature in real time.

Where we landed:
If you believed the thesis a year ago, nothing has changed except price. The macro setup is actually confirming the hard asset rotation. Gold is proving the case. Bitcoin's turn is coming. The people who stick with it and manage their positions intelligently will be rewarded. And if you're dollar-cost averaging right now, this is exactly what you want: time to accumulate before the next leg.

If you believe central banks will keep diversifying away from Treasuries, and you believe non-USD assets will outperform over the next decade, then Bitcoin at $83K isn't a problem. It's an opportunity.

The rotation is happening. Gold is proving the thesis. Bitcoin follows because it always has and because its fundamental properties are superior. The question isn't whether to own it. It's whether you're using this window to position properly before the next move.

If you're treating sideways price action as a reason to exit, you're thinking like a trader. If you're treating it as time to accumulate and secure your position, you're thinking like a treasury manager.

This week's action: Use the boring price action to get your house in order.

Ask yourself:

If Bitcoin isn't moving right now, that's a gift. It's time to get custody, security, and inheritance planning right. Not someday. Now. Before the next leg up forces rushed decisions at higher prices.

We help individuals, businesses, and institutions who own Bitcoin (or want to) secure it properly: institutional-grade custody, inheritance planning, financial services, and access to a team that knows what they're doing.

If you're holding serious BTC and haven't pressure-tested your setup, or if you're building a position and want to do it right from the start, let's talk.

Book a 15-minute call here

— Jackson

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— Jackson