Bitcoin Treasury Companies: Financial Engineering or Fragile Leverage?

• Bitcoin treasury companies are soaking up significant retail demand this cycle, demand that in past cycles flowed into spot Bitcoin or altcoins.

• Strategy (MSTR) remains the standout, offering deep liquidity, option markets, and smart financial engineering, but imitators raise questions about how much room exists for copycats.

• There’s also growing opportunity for jurisdictional and regulatory arbitrage, with companies like MetaPlanet in Japan tapping into capital markets where traditional Bitcoin access is more limited.

• Leverage remains low today, but latecomers may increase risk to differentiate and accumulate faster, introducing potential volatility later in the cycle.

• These vehicles blur the line between trade and long-term investment, ultimately reinforcing spot Bitcoin’s appeal as a real asset, not just a proxy.

Stablecoins and Dollar Hegemony: A Geopolitical Power Play

• The U.S. is leaning into stablecoin proliferation to extend dollar dominance in a multipolar world.

• The Genius Act is less about crypto, more about embedding dollars into every smartphone globally via stablecoins, driving demand for dollars higher globally.

• Alex argues: “It’s a dollar dominance bill, not a crypto bill,” a strategic move many in Washington still fail to fully grasp.

• Treasury bonds may continue to lose their direct appeal over time, but stablecoins could become the digital “face” of U.S. monetary policy.

• This also creates a path for Americans to save in Bitcoin while continuing to spend in dollars—a tacit acknowledgment of Bitcoin’s role as a store of value, not a medium of exchange.

• Stablecoins and Bitcoin may ultimately coexist as the new monetary barbell, one enabling global liquidity, the other preserving long-term purchasing power.

Institutional Appetite: Why the U.S. Leads and the World Lags

• $60B has flowed into U.S.-based Bitcoin ETFs since approval, compared to $2B in outflows from products outside the U.S.

• American capital markets remain the deepest, most liquid, and most structurally accessible. Alex points to this as the primary driver behind U.S. Bitcoin ETF success.

• ETF access has opened the door for RIAs, wirehouses, and hedge funds, but it’s still early. Tens of trillions in managed wealth remain structurally unable to allocate.

• Key upgrades, like ETF margining, major bank custody, and wirehouse buy authorizations, are on the horizon. JP Morgan just announced that borrowing against IBIT will now be allowed.

• The U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) could be the next major unlock if the government discloses its holdings in the coming month and reveals plans for future acquisition.

The Youth Malaise: Why Retail Feels Left Behind

• At $100K Bitcoin, many retail investors feel priced out, turning instead to meme stocks and Bitcoin proxy trades in hopes of catching up.

• The deeper issue is structural: decades of asset inflation have benefited older generations, pushing real estate and equities out of reach for younger investors.

• Wages have lagged inflation, and the cost of wealth-building assets continues to rise, driving younger investors toward speculation as a perceived path forward.

• This environment fosters short-term gambling rather than long-term savings, despite Bitcoin being the clearest modern savings technology.

• The data bears this out: Americans over 70 now control 31% of household wealth, and the median homebuyer age in the U.S. is 56.

The Next Catalysts: What’s Still to Come in 2025

• The U.S. government may soon disclose its Bitcoin holdings following a federally mandated audit, a complex process that Alex notes is far more cumbersome than most realize.

• The Presidential Working Group report, due this summer, could outline budget-neutral strategies for BTC acquisition. While accumulation is being explored, specific plans remain under wraps.

• New forms of persistent demand, such as Bitcoin credit cards, retirement integrations, and sovereign adoption, could introduce daily BTC flows that remain underappreciated by markets.

• Alex emphasized that future upside is more likely to come from demand-side drivers than from supply shocks like the halving.

• Macro conditions remain supportive: the U.S. is likely entering a rate-cutting cycle, in contrast to the tightening seen last cycle. Dollar debasement and global M2 expansion continue to bolster the long-term case for Bitcoin.

Quotes of the Week

“Bitcoin can win massively, it doesn’t need to be the global reserve to succeed.” - Alex Thorn

“You don’t have to believe in a Bitcoin standard to be mega bullish on Bitcoin.” - Alex Thorn

“It’s (GENIUS Act) a dollar dominance bill, not a crypto bill, and Washington still doesn’t get that.” - Alex Thorn

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