This week’s conversation with Mark Yusko cuts through the noise around Bitcoin’s drawdown, the stalled price action, and the rising narrative that the four-year cycle is dead.
Mark argues the opposite: the cycle is intact, the recent peak was consistent with long-term fair value models, and the drawdown is a function of leverage, futures structure, and institutional positioning, not a breakdown in fundamentals.
He explains why Bitcoin topped earlier than expected, why this cycle’s amplitude was smaller, and how institutional flows, endowment accumulation, and structural macro forces will drive the next phase of adoption.
Mark also outlines the deeper liquidity dynamics shaping markets, the real implications of passive indexing, and the political and regulatory shifts that are accelerating Bitcoin’s normalization inside legacy financial institutions. The discussion provides a clear framework for understanding where we are in the cycle and what serious investors should expect in 2026.
End of Year Incentive for TLT Readers
We’re offering a limited end-of-year incentive: a flat annual price locked in indefinitely, no matter how high Bitcoin goes.
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Reply “EOY” and I’ll send the details.
Why people are moving to Onramp:
• Insured, multi-institution custody
• Built-in inheritance planning
• White-glove human support
• Loans, IRAs, and seamless buy/sell
• Serious security without the complexity
Onramp — Where Security Meets Simplicity.
The Real Story of This Cycle: Fair Value, Leverage, and Human Behavior
Bitcoin’s long-term 3 years 11 months cycle remains intact because it is driven by block-based supply mechanics, not calendar narratives.
The 2021 and 2017 tops both reached 2x fair value, but this cycle reached only ~1.35x, signaling a structurally lower leverage environment across crypto.
Reduced offshore leverage, tighter derivatives markets, and higher global rates constrained the euphoric upside that typically drives blow-off tops.
The drawdown to the high $80Ks and low $90Ks reflects normalization toward fair value rather than the start of a structural bear market.
Human behavior still dominates cycle psychology, which is why Thanksgiving sentiment and investor psychology remain reliable cycle markers.
This cycle did not fail — it compressed, matured, and reflected the influence of larger, more disciplined capital.
Macro Liquidity Still Drives Bitcoin, Even as the Cycle Evolves
The previous cycle aligned perfectly with peak fiscal stimulus, zero-rate policy, and quantitative easing, which amplified Bitcoin’s upside.
Today we are in a different macro setup: rising expectations for easing, elevated debt levels, and constrained liquidity across risk markets.
Equity markets remain inflated because passive flows mechanically bid indices higher regardless of fundamentals or valuation extremes.
Bitcoin lacks that structural bid — for now — which makes its price action more reflective of real capital flows rather than passive distortions.
Despite the downtrend in dollar terms, Bitcoin priced in gold still has not made a new all-time high, signaling the macro trend is not fully underway.
The path forward depends on liquidity conditions in 2026 as rate cuts, global fiscal expansion, and institutional demand converge.
Futures Markets, ETFs, and Institutional Positioning Are Redefining Price Discovery
The launch of CME futures in 2017 was a structural shift that allowed large institutions to short Bitcoin without owning underlying coins.
Today that dynamic is amplified: hedge funds run basis trades, levered futures positions, and short exposure to manage ETF-created inflows.
Roll yield, month-end futures structure, and systematic neutral funds often pressure spot markets despite rising long-term demand.
Institutions like Millennium, Jane Street, and Jump frequently hold spot ETF exposure while simultaneously shorting equal notional futures.
Market-neutral strategies distort surface price action but do not change long-term supply constraints or adoption trends.
The introduction of structured notes, institutional products, and short-dated hedges has made Bitcoin more liquid but also more mechanically suppressed short term.
Endowments and Institutional Allocators Are Quietly Building Exposure
Leading endowments — including Harvard, Brown, and Emory — are allocating to IBIT and other ETFs but avoiding public disclosure to sidestep internal politics.
Early exposure for many institutions came through venture arms like Sequoia and a16z, which invested in crypto-native funds that performed strongly.
Large allocators often adopt innovation only after it becomes “boomerized,” meaning wrapped in traditional vehicles like ETFs.
Board dynamics slow institutional adoption because there is career risk in acting early and limited upside for contrarian decisions.
Despite stigma, endowments recognize that achieving long-term return targets requires exposure to innovation cycles, including Bitcoin.
Endowment CIOs with long time horizons and innovation mandates are leading the shift, and 2025–2026 is likely to produce broader industry-wide inclusion.
Regulation, Politics, and the Emerging Digital Asset Architecture
The Genius Act and Clarity Act contain both positive elements and deeper structural implications, including movement toward triple-entry accounting frameworks.
Stablecoin legislation and tokenized treasury requirements could hardwire digital rails into the financial system faster than expected.
US political dynamics — from Operation Chokepoint to shifting positions under new administrations — reveal coordinated efforts to slow, then integrate, Bitcoin.
Legacy finance and government actors are not trying to destroy Bitcoin but to shape the rails upon which the next monetary system will run.
The risk long term is not seizure or protocol compromise but increased programmability and constraints on fiat rails surrounding Bitcoin.
Bitcoin’s self-sovereign architecture remains resilient, but regulatory direction will determine how freely individuals can interact with the asset in the coming decade.
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Does your Bitcoin keep you up at night?
Self-custody: Lose a device, forget a phrase, or make one wrong move, and your Bitcoin could be gone forever.
No inheritance plan: If something happens to you, how would your loved ones access what you’ve built?
Exchange exposure: Billions have been lost to hacks, outages, and custodians failing altogether.
That’s why more serious investors are moving to insured, multi-institution custody with built-in inheritance planning and seamless access to financial services.
Onramp — Where Security Meets Simplicity.