This week’s episode features analyst and author Mel Mattison, who argues that Bitcoin is currently in one of the most compelling setups in years.
He believes the market is sitting at the bottom of the global liquidity cycle, shaped by a rare fiscal surplus, a government shutdown, and the final stages of quantitative tightening.
Mel explains why these forces temporarily drained liquidity and why the reversal of these conditions is now underway. He outlines how fiscal spending, central bank balance-sheet expansion, and institutional demand could drive a strong Bitcoin repricing over the next 4 to 6 months.
The discussion expands into gold, sovereign debt, geopolitical competition, and the growing convergence between Western and Eastern monetary strategies. Mel closes with a candid view of societal pressure points, AI disruption, and why the strongest part of the cycle may lie directly ahead before the macro picture becomes more fragile.
Liquidity Dislocation Is Ending and Bitcoin Is First to React
Bitcoin has been flat for nearly a year because it’s been one of the driest liquidity periods in recent years, amid selling from sizable long-term holders.
September’s fiscal surplus and the October shutdown effectively produced private-sector liquidity deficits, which Bitcoin immediately priced in.
The standing repo facility prevented a systemic event by backstopping collateral markets at a moment of liquidity stress.
Liquidity injections reverse with a lag, and Mattison expects government spending and transfer payments to re-accelerate within weeks.
Bitcoin historically leads major liquidity reversals and is positioned to move 25 to 50% higher as liquidity returns.
Global Balance Sheet Expansion Is Re-Starting
The PBOC now operates a larger balance sheet than the Federal Reserve, showing how aggressively China is engaging in monetary easing.
The Fed has reduced its balance sheet by $3 trillion dollars since COVID, the equivalent of China and Japan selling their treasuries combined.
With QT ending on December 1 and a stated intention to align balance sheet growth with nominal GDP, the liquidity cycle is at a structural bottom.
Coordinated global easing is re-emerging as sovereign debt loads limit the ability to tighten further.
Gold has already responded to this shift, breaking higher as markets price in long-term debasement pressure.
The Debasement Trade Is the New Macro Regime
Gold and Bitcoin serve as liquidity sponges that absorb monetary expansion without overheating the real economy.
Stock markets function as a monetary escape valve that preserves tax receipts and prevents a recessionary spiral.
Historically high equity valuations are a feature of fiscal dominance, not a bug, since asset prices support retirement systems and consumption.
Mattison compares today’s environment to the 1950s: high inflation, large infrastructure spending, geopolitical conflict, and a bifurcated society.
Bitcoin, gold, and real assets become the core beneficiaries in a world where nominal GDP must outpace real debt burdens.
Generational Shifts, Social Pressure, and the 2027 Turning Point
Structural bifurcation has precedent, but social tensions typically follow as younger generations compare current living standards to the past.
Mattison expects political and social strain to intensify post-2026 as entitlement funding issues and AI-driven labor displacement collide.
The Social Security trust fund exhaustion will be widely misunderstood and may fuel volatility even though it does not add new public debt.
A potential political shift in 2027 toward more redistribution could mark the next major bearish inflection for risk assets.
Until then, policy incentives point toward maintaining asset inflation through fiscal and monetary coordination.
Bitcoin’s Maturation: From OG Distribution to Institutional Absorption
Bitcoin has been in a year-long transfer of supply from early holders to financial institutions and advisor-driven portfolios.
Flat annual performance signals accumulation, not weakness, as ETFs and major wealth platforms pull supply off the market.
Institutional advisory flows are entering the market through rebalance cycles, with three to five percent allocations becoming standard.
Bitcoin’s role as a liquidity sponge makes it uniquely suited to absorb the coming fiscal stimulus ahead of the 2026 midterms.
Hashrate, infrastructure growth, and global payment integrations continue to strengthen the network’s monetary moat.
Does your Bitcoin keep you up at night?
Self-custody: Lose a device, forget a phrase, or make one wrong move, and your Bitcoin could be gone forever.
No inheritance plan: If something happens to you, how would your loved ones access what you’ve built?
Exchange exposure: Billions have been lost to hacks, outages, and custodians failing altogether.
That’s why more serious investors are moving to insured, multi-institution custody with built-in inheritance planning and seamless access to financial services.
Onramp — Where Security Meets Simplicity.